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For years, banks and other issuers have paid rating agencies to rate their securities. This is a bit like restaurants paying food critics to write on their food.  In the wake of the SEC’s charge that  people at Goldman Sachs built the Abacus investment to fall apart so a hedge fund manager, John A. Paulson, could bet against it, the Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations questioned representatives from Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s about how they rate risky securities. Carl M. Levin, the Michigan Democrat who heads the Senate panel, said in a statement: “A conveyor belt of high-risk securities, backed by toxic mortgages, got AAA ratings that turned out not to be worth the paper they were printed on.” Throughout the testimony, the institutional conflict of interest was salient whereby credit-rating agencies put market-share considerations foremost in rating securities presented by the banks that are paying the agencies. Someone at one bank, J. P. Morgan, went so far as to communicate to one of the agencies that the agency’s ratings should reflect market-share considerations.  Essentially, the bank was reminding the agency that the bank was a client. To be fair, the agency replied that such considerations are not part of the ratings process.  However, the testimony before the committee suggested that the reality has often been quite otherwise. The upper managements of the agencies in particular regularly pressure their ratings analysts to rate in such a way that the agency’s market share does not suffer.  In other words, the message is: “Rate so we don’t lose any clients.”

In fact, the agencies even shared their models with the banks.  As a result, the banks could game the models so the securities would get high ratings.  To be sure, there was also fraud involved, such as making it seem like the mortgages in a CDO came from different servicers or different regions of the US.  Some bankers relabeled parts of collateralized debt obligations in two ways so they would not be recognized by the computer models as being the same. Others were also able to get more favorable ratings by adding a small amount of commercial real estate loans to a mix of home loans, thus making the entire pool appear safer. “If you dug into it, if you had the time, you would see errors that magically favored the banker,” said one former ratings executive.  The assymetry was no accident, for there is an underlying structural conflict of interest at the core of the ratings system. The actual clients–the general public that relies on the ratings–are not the parties paying the agencies.  Also, the agencies get more when their ratings are higher because more of the underlying securities are sold.   To demand that an agency be independent of the “client” paying it is to place the agency in a structural or institutional conflict of interest that cannot be effectively remedied by simplying subjecting the agency to higher regulatory standards. Worse still, often times the underlying structure is ignored.

Although not made transparent in the Senate hearing, I want to point to the assumption that the agencies would be able to handle their conflict of interest, even in the face of rising pressure for profits as increasing attention was directed to their stock prices. There seems to be a belief in American society that businesses can rise to the occasion when a structural conflict of interest is involved.  In other words, we tend to mitigate the force of such ethical dilemmas, essentially assuming that human nature can be relied upon to surmount them.  Even in the committee testimony, former employees from the rating agencies suggested that common regulatory standards for rating, similar to the FASB standards in accounting, would suffice. This is actually a rather poor choice of comparison, for the public accounting profession is rife with its own conflict of interest that has thus far been shoved under the rug.  One need only look to Arthur Andersen in giving the go-ahead to Enron’s use of “unrelated” partnerships to hide debt or to Arthur Young knowing of the Repo 105s at Goldman Sachs to question whether using regulatory standards goes far enough.

Institutional conflicts of interest are not solved by common regulatory standards because they too can be gamed. The incentives have not been changed, so we can expect the pent-up water to eventually make its way through the muddy dams we construct.  In both public accounting and securities rating, the “independent” assessors cannot be paid by the institutions whose books or products are being assessed.  The unwarranted assumption that turning these functions over the government is the only alternative adds to the easy decision that simply creating or tweeking regulatory standards must suffice.

As an alternative to having the government rate securities, the financial industry as a whole could be required to contribute to a pool that would fund the rating agencies. The SEC would assess the agencies periodically and decide how much each would receive.  Essentially, the government would be the umpire rather than perform the rating function itself.  As long as the banks do not capture the SEC (which is another problem in need of a solution), they would not be able to pressure the rating agencies.  It might be suggested that industry self-regulation could work. That is, the banks altogether would assess the rating agencies.  However, this alternative would simply allow the banks to collude to pressure the agencies.  We ought not replace the government with one of the teams in performing the role of umpire.

It is unlikely that Congress will go beyond mandating stricter disclosure statements and allowing plaintiffs to sue the agencies. Within the fecklessness of Congress in extracting the structural conflicts of interest from the rating function is a fear that tampering with it might risk the salubrity of the credit markets.   Under this logic, riding the ratings function of a structural bias would somehow compromise the function because the public might get a true look at the lack of credit-worthiness of some of the securities currently deemed credit-worthy. An illusion is thought better, or more expedient, than a solid economy. Besides the dubiousness of such reasoning, there is the argument more generally that we can’t afford to tamper with our financial system as long as it is still at risk.  However, before assuming power, Barak Obama argued that the only time when real change can happen is during a crisis–while the forces of the status quo are temporarily marginalized.   So it would seem that we are in a catch 22–or, more accurately, we have put ourselves in one.   In actuality, riding our financial system of institutional conflicts of interest would strengthen rather than risk our economy.
I suspect that the true reason why neither the ratings nor the public accounting structural conflicts of interest have been removed goes beyond our collective ignorance of the nature of an institutional conflict of interest.  As Dick Durbin said after the  banking industry scuttled foreclosure reform, “the banking industry owns Congress.”  Apparently it owns the credit-rating agencies too, as well as the public accounting firms. The wolves are paying the guards of the chicken coop.  Regulating the pay does not go far enough; we need to address the question of the payor.  Until we do so, we are bound to keep scratching our heads as chickens continue to come up missing.

Sources:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/24/business/24rating.html?hp=&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1272117625-MtgpixNdFNobkGOTVoD0NA ; http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/08/business/08ratings.html?_r=1&ref=business