Showing posts with label technology. Show all posts
Showing posts with label technology. Show all posts

Thursday, March 31, 2011

Blogs are interesting creatures. Like humans, they seek not merely self-preservation, but also the expansion of their domain on the internet. The empire-building does not have power-aggrandizement as its goal; rather, they use what power they have to maximize the reach of their words. To be heard by as many blogs as possible—as if quantity were more important than quality—is a still more intermediate means, with the end being to bring one's words to the world. At the extreme, a blog wants to see a world that has become a projection of its own words. Less extreme, a blog wants to be a significant player in societal discussions even beyond the internet. Toward such ends, blogs economize in the sense of seeking to minimize what they incorporate of other blogs beyond what they view as being useful to themselves, while attempting to maximize that of themselves that is incorporated on other blogs by power and moral suasion. Of the latter device, for example, a blog might say to another blog, “I’ll blogroll you if you blogroll me.” This is a variant of the manipulatory ploy of “I’ll follow you if you follow me” on Twitter.

As Susan Gunelius, an expert on blog marketing, observes in Blogging for Dummies, such reciprocity is no longer a normative practice in blogging. Indeed, the “I’ll follow you if you follow me” mentality is questionable at best. It implies that one person follows another not because of any value perceived on the followed’s account, but, rather, solely so he or she can be followed by yet another person.

For example, one way my essays are sent out is via @wordenreport on twitter. This is the entire purpose of that account. The reason why someone would follow the account is therefore presumably because he or she wants to read my essays (I don’t send out other tweets on that account). To hold that the value to the follower in receiving my essays is somehow dependent on me following him or her rather than on the quality of the my essays simply does not make sense from a logical standpoint. Moreover, the mentality that seeks to impose such a conditionality is inherently manipulatory. For my part, I would rather not have people follow @wordenreport if they do not want to read my essays, as receiving them is the sole purpose of that account. Furthermore, because I use @wordenreport simply to send out links to the essays, I do not look at incoming tweets; I have another twitter account to accommodate that. So it does not make sense for someone to want me to follow unless he or she is simply interested in having a higher number—as if that were an end in itself apart from signifying a greater reach attained for his or her mind. It is the combination of the element of manipulation and valuing a higher number as an end in itself that characterizes the mentality that I am identifying here. It evinces the sort of excesses that can manifest from the economizing and power-aggrandizing forces that are operative in blogging.

Fortunately, “semi-permeable” normative constraints can be applied to the two forces that seek to maximize the variable of self-interest. One might call such constraints ecologizing, for like an ecosystem they can be breached by a maximizing species or variable within. Susan Gunelius points to a few of the ethical “rules” that can act as constraints via pressure from other bloggers.

Spam can be interpreted as economizing or power-aggrandizing forces that fail to respect the normative "rules" of the internet society. Comment spam, for example, utilizes a useless or irrelevant comment-posting simply to self-promote (i.e., to economize) through links. Post-spam reduces a blog’s own post to an otherwise content-empty medium advertising the blog itself or someone else’s product in exchange for samples or money. Both of these kinds of spam are unethical because they operate under a subterfuge (i.e., promising to be something other than what they are). The underlying selfishness fuses with theft (i.e., stealing other bloggers’ time and effort in reading), and thus manifests passive aggression. In other words, it is a “taking” beyond that which the spammer is entitled to take.

As another example of the mentality that has a difficult time with limitation, some bloggers steal the bandwidth of other bloggers. According to Gunelius (2010, p. 69), bloggers and website owners can be charged more if the amount of time that their content is accessed increases dramatically, “such as when other bloggers use images without saving them to their own hosting accounts first.” Gunelius claims that a blogger should copy and save the picture (assuming fair use) before inserting the image in the post. Otherwise, the excess power-aggrandizing steals more than time and effort.

In describing excessive economizing and power-aggrandizing in blogging beyond ethical, or “ecologizing,” constraints, I have sought to bring out the element of aggression. The anger that bloggers feel toward the “cheaters” is not only due to the unfairness in the manipulation; the response is also to the passive aggression. If the responses go beyond what is proportionate, however, excessive power-aggrandizement is involved in the victims as well. That is, the victims can become victimizers! Such anger “over the top” is also evinced in comments that are hateful or otherwise attacking. It is the sheer excess in the anger that can strike one as amazing in the sense that it even happens at all.  For such intense anger to be directed to a total stranger, especially if he or she had posted on his opinion without ad hominem criticism, points to psychological problems in the person making the comment.

The spiked anger is actually a projection of the person’s failure to deal with his or her own problem, rather than having much at all to do with the “offending” post. Trolls, for example, are actually playing out their pathology on the internet because they believe they can take their anger out on strangers without any downside. Blackballing such people is not only smart; it is an ethical obligation if it is in line with preventing or minimizing future attacks against innocent victims. However, lest such hate be conflated with spam as if the two were equally egregious, it is important that efforts to keep hate at bay do not overflow as excessive power-aggrandizing! While spam is annoying and involves passive aggression, the anger in hateful writing directed to an innocent person is far worse.

Generally speaking, the bloggers who subscribe to normative constraints in the blogosphere recognize the existence of excessive power-aggrandizement and economizing forces in blogging. The theft and anger elements in the excess are particularly onerous. While the law cannot effectively sanction such elements, “societal” pressure can. However, lest the latter become self-righteous, it is important not to label as spam anything that is inconvenient.

For example, commenting (or tweeting) to someone on topic and including a link to one’s own post can be a legitimate part of an effort to start a conversation on a mutual topic—as long as there is content on that topic in addition to the link. You might tweet on Obama and Libya. I might send the following reply: “yeah, but Obama waited too long. So his motive is suspect. See link.” My reply was on the other’s topic and added content as well as a link to my posting on that content. To treat my tweet as cold-calling would be to overreact simply out of the mistaken belief sending out a tweet should not occasion tweets. In such overreaction is an element of presumptuousness in addition to the excessive power-aggrandizement. In other words, excess can manifest where it is least expected.  

Of course, I’m reading Blogging for Dummies, which fits my pace on blog technology and using social media on the internet. So my thoughts should be taken with a grain of salt. Perhaps if we could bring more humility and less hate to our expansive electronic world, we might find that it would blast off to the stratosphere. We would be able to say, “you ain’t seen nothin’ yet.” The new world is not merely technological; fundamentally, it is composed of fallible human beings—you and me. Lest we treat the self-seeking proclivity as anything less than ubiquitous, we could do worse than recognize it in ourselves.

Click to add a non-hateful Comment or Question (and View Posted Comments) on the efficacy of Ethics in Blogging

Source: Susan Gunelius, Blogging for Dummies (Indianapolis: Wiley, 2010).

On ecologizing, economizing and power-aggrandizing forces applied to business and society, see: William C. Frederick, Values, Nature and Culture in the American Corporation (New York: Oxford University Press, 1995).

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

On March 17, 2011, USA Today observed, “Tech and Internet stocks turned into bad words after the dot-com bust in 2000. But the get-rich-quick feelings toward tech are back. . . . Given the near-hysteria about promising but largely unproven companies, investment [practitioners] warn that things could start getting out of hand.” So why doesn’t the government step in and stop it from going so far and then crashing?  This is easier said than done. Beyond the difficulties in having regulators intercede to stop transactions that may be necessary to avert a party from bankruptcy, the sheer ambiguity in ascertaining whether a bubble does in fact exist can have a paralyzing effect. "It's a boom, not a bubble, when you hear the sound of dynamite profits," according to Bing Gordon, a partner at a venture-capital firm and a board member of social-gaming company Zynga, which was valued at $9 billion in March of 2011.

However, a big boom can explode in a giant bust; Gordon’s distinction doesn’t carry much water. Neither does that of Geoff Yang, a founding partner of Redpoint Ventures. "There is effervescence, but no bubble." Effervescence can manifest, however, as an attribute of the sort of irrational exuberance that characterizes bubbles. That the market mechanism not only does not temper, but may even magnify the volatility from, this all-too-human psychology, whether in pushing a “boom” or “bubble,” is the real problem. Government regulation will not be able to effectively pull up this root until its nature is uncovered. In the meantime, we are left with the problem of discerning whether a bubble can even be identified as it is expanding. Consider, for example, Facebook in 2010.

In 2010, Facebook had about $2 billion in revenue according to USA Today. MSNBC puts the company’s profit for that year at $600 million. Facebook was being valued at $75 billion, based on private transactions from the SharesPost market. If an accurate valuation, USA Today claimed that “this would make the social-media upstart more valuable than Disney.” It would also mean that Facebook had a price-earnings ratio (P/E) of 125.  This essentially means that higher future profits were expected.  The average P/E ratio for the technology sector was about 25, making 125 extraordinarily high.  This could be taken as being indicative of irrational exuberance,  as one typically compares a company’s number with the average of its sector. However, the technology sector was quite broad at the time, and one would expect companies on the forefront like Google, Yahoo and Facebook to have much higher numbers than other companies in the sector. In other words, even a very high P/E ratio, even relative to a sector’s average, does not necessary point to there being a bubble. Therefore, it is notoriously difficult to identify one definitively without ongoing debate delaying any regulatory action.  Also, if the sector itself is in the grip of irrational exuberance, comparing a company’s ratio to the average is relatively useless in proffering an indication.

In March of 2011, USA Today claimed, “Even big companies are said to be drinking the Internet Kool-Aid. There is speculation that Google and Facebook have considered bidding as much as $10 billion for online microblogging service Twitter.”  In December of 2010, according to USA Today, “The New York Times reported that Twitter was valued at $3.7 billion after a funding round. In March of the following year, it was pegged at about $7.2 billion, according to SharesPost.” The sheer variance between these figures indicates high risk, but this did not seem to bother those drinking the kool-aid. Such psychology is a red-flag that a bubble is likely in the works. It is like a tornado watch: conditions are right for one to form.

The risk can be seen by uncovering fallacies in the way the private tech companies are valued. According to USA Today, “Until companies finally go public and the stocks actively trade on major exchanges, the small and relatively thin trading on private markets sets the price. . . .  Private marketplaces, including SecondMarket and SharesPost, allow owners of shares of private companies such as Digg, Facebook, Zynga and Twitter to sell to high-net-worth individuals and institutions. Typically, the sellers are employees at these firms looking to cash in on shares they've received. And the buyers are sophisticated investors who understand they could lose their entire investment. These online services provide a way for employees to sell their shares now rather than waiting for an IPO that may never occur. However, with the great power that such marketplaces offer comes confusion. Many of the valuations put on companies are overinflated based on limited sales of shares occurring on the relatively small markets. . . . Before long, estimates for the value of popular Internet companies can soar.” In short, one should not generalize from a highly particularized market to project a total market value because there are unique dynamics going on in that market that would not apply were the firm listed on the NYSE.

Crucially, the generalization is in the direction of overstating; hence, it can camouflage irrational exuberance while feeding it. Therefore, risk is increased by how private companies are restrictively “traded” even as the risk is cloaked—making it even more dangerous. “Given such huge risks, the level of the public's infatuation with shares of privately held Internet companies is again taking on a feel of a mania, Gary Freedman, securities lawyer, said, according to USA Today. He noted that several ingredients that inflate bubbles were all present, including a broad acceptance of the companies' products.  Intensifying the distortion, according to him, was the fact that there was very little financial information on these private companies. "It's the same mania," he claimed. "Markets are cyclical. It's really no different than looking at the Internet bust and the housing market." Lest one conclude from this a slam-dunk case, USA Today pointed out that the not all of the practitioners were on board.  That is to say, there was serious difference on whether there was any bubble at all.

USA Today represented the other side as follows: “proponents of the next breed of Internet companies say the valuations aren't absurd this time because the companies have fundamentals behind them. ‘We're talking about real companies with real revenue and real profit,’ says Jeremy Smith of SecondMarket. A major shift in technology is bound to create companies with massive market values, the proponents say. The emergence of social media (more than 500 million accounts on Facebook alone), combined with mobile phone use (4.5 billion), is disrupting all of technology, so giant winners are to be expected, say venture-capitalists such as Cohler and Yang. ‘I think this boom is going to last awhile,’ Ted Schlein, a managing partner at KPCB, averred. ‘The trend lines are unlike anything we've seen in history,’ He says the enormous size of the social and mobile Internet market — tens of billions of people — dwarfs the markets for the fledgling Internet (billions) and personal computers (hundreds of millions), putting companies such as Facebook, Twitter and Zynga in prime position to strike it rich in IPOs. ‘This is just the beginning of a big market run,’ says Tim Draper, founder of a venture-capital firm.”

To be sure, the emergence of social media had been a huge phenomenon in defining or characterizing the age from roughly the year 2000. Indeed, the computer and internet may have represented the biggest change in daily life from the world of even the last few decades of the twentieth century. It follows that anything so big would have attracted a lot of money, as per Facebook’s ratio of 125. However, like a jet plane that steeply climbs on take-off and then eventually levels off, the social media companies could not be expected to remain the leading edge forever; they were bound to level off at some point, and then the extended boom would be truncated or even turned to a bust if the market gets stung by the high P/E ratios. Moreover, a bubble just is an expectation of an “extended boom.” The “bubble” lies in the difference between the expectation and the reality that even such a boom is apt to end.

All of this is to say, identifying a bubble in progress with some degree of consensus does not seem to be possible, at least as of 2011. Were such an identification even possible, what would government regulators do to let the air out of the balloon? If Facebook, itself iffy with a P/E ratio of 125, wants to buy Twitter for $10 billion even though the latter had been valued at just over $3 billion a few months before, would blocking the purchase lessen the bubble? Were Twitter in trouble in spite of its growing presumed market value, would its bankruptcy take the air out of the bubble only to provoke a recession?  The aim of the regulators would have to be to release air from the balloon without triggering a recession (which is the downside of a bubble anyway). If anything is clear, it is that much more knowledge is needed for the market to be managed, let alone designed, so bubbles are identified and depressed before doing so could do harm to an economy as a whole. In the meantime, we can expect bubbles to top up because markets are susceptible to the human psychology of irrational exuberance.   

Click to add a Comment or Question (or View Posted Comments) on whether a social media bubble exists.

Sources:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41521349/ns/business-us_business/

Saturday, February 26, 2011

$26 billion-a-year by 2011, the internet advertising market is lucrative to venture capitalists who want to invest into companies that help target online advertising. Between 2007 and 2010, venture firms invested $4.7 billion in 356 online-ad firms. "Its a huge market and it's growing," Chris Fralic at First Round Capital says. Fralic's company has backed 33Across, which analyzes users' social networks, and Demdex, which has a "behavioral bank" of user profiles. Ethically, user on-line privacy is at issue. I contend that user privacy can be protected from dangers of concern to users while willing users can benefit as consumers from information regarding products that they want and would not otherwise know of.

According to The Wall Street Journal's "What They Know" report, the top fifty American websites installed thousands of "cookies" and other tracking technologies on people's computers in 2010. The purpose was to create sophisicated dossiers on people's personal activities and to track them in real time. At the end of 2010, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission urged the creation of a "do-not-track" system and the Obama administration backed an online "privacy bill of rights." At the same time, the EU and its states were grappling with the same issue.  One issue there was whether a user simply turning on his or her computer and going online constituted consent to "cookies."  The relative lobbying power of the industry with the vested interest could be seen to differ between states (e.g., Britain and France).  In other words, governmental restrictions can not necessarily be counted on to protect privacy and thus obviate the ethical problem. Accordingly, I now turn to an ethical analysis, putting the question of government regulation aside.

As of 2011, Americans spend 28% of our media time online. Also, online-ad start-ups do not require a lot of money relative to start-ups in other industries. Many of the online ad start-ups attracting funding connect website operators with advertisers who want to capitalize, according to The Wall Street Journal, "on the Web's ability to target individual users." According to Nick Sturiale at Jafco Ventures, "Advertisers want to buy individuals." We are bought, in other words, by being targeted even in our social networking. In short, in going to where people are, there is a lot of money to be made by bringing ads to the people most likely to buy from them. To be sure, consumers benefit when they are made aware of products of particular benefit to them. In business terms, connecting people with products they want is like water going downstream: money is naturally to be made, so it will.  Hence even government-constructed channels or dams are apt to be subtly worked around as money-seekers inevitably seek out sources in more efficient ways. The ethics of privacy do not translate except if there is a financial backlash from actual or potential consumers spurring the ads (i.e., voting for privacy with their wallets and purses). I suspect that few users will spur online ads, however. First of all, consumers who would like to buy a new product tailored to their interests may not all object to the loss of their privacy. Enabling users to allow or disable cookies would allow consumers to make this decision. Secondly, users may not object because the fact that they have been researched and targeted is not typically transparent to them when no one uses the information against them in particular. The loss of privacy is abstract where one has no knowledge of it happening in real time and one does not feel harmed. Indeed, where such breaches are widespread, the use of the data uncovered is routinized and contained.  For example, if a given user's search of porn sites is just one among millions, the individual user can have comfort in the relative obscurity of numbers.  However, what if a potential employer gains access to such information?

The danger with respect to privacy could be if a business shares its "behavioral bank" with organizations with an interest in a particular user.  Such use would not be necessary even in the case of users who want ads tailored to their particular interests. Someone who regularly watches porn might want to know if there is a new sex toy on the market, for example. But should a potential employer such as Walmart be able to access a "behavior bank" to gain personal information on people who have applied for employment?  What if Walmart owns the company that has the bank?  Would not the information then be the property of Walmart?  Furthermore, what if an agency of the federal government were to cite national security to gain access on particular users? Privacy concerns are really oriented to such access concerning particular individuals, typically by third parties, rather than to marketers using pooled data to further segment markets. Legislation ought to be focused accordingly.

In terms of ethical theory, "buying" and "targeting" online users so as to gain and use information that they regard as private violates Kant's "Kingdom of Ends" version of his categorical imperative.  For those of you who have lives and thus do not read Kant, the principle here is that people, being rational beings (i.e,, having the capacity to use reason), should be treated not just as means, but also as ends in themselves. This principle limits exploitation or manipulation of others because using them should not violate treating them as ends in themselves. The reason Kant says for the "ends in themselves" comes down to reason itself having absolute value because we use it to assign value to things.  Just as the sun is the source of light in our solar system, reason is the source of value, according to Kant.  As the source, reason must have absolute, or undefined, value. Incidently, when I get on a topic like this--boiling Kant down and applying his principle to a real-world topic--I think of possibly teaching in spite of my multidisciplinary background (which does not jive well with cubbyholes). Anyway, the rational beings at the online advertising firms seem to be ignoring what the rational nature of online users entitles--specifically, to be treated as an end in oneself rather than merely used.  To be sure, using others is not entirely blocked, as long as it is consistent with treating others as ends in themselves.  In the present issue, users who do not want to be tracked even though that could mean they do not get an informational benefit as consumers are not treated as ends in themselves if they are tracked anyway. We might call it a "boundry issue" on the part of business managers.

In abstract terms, selfishness and greed can prompt a rational being to treat oneself as an end in itself while treating other people as objects. I suspect that this is the root complaint against business managers: that they view humans exclusively as resources while in the role of manager. The problem is that greed is like water running downstream to find wealth below, so an ethical obligation or duty to go around ends in themselves can easily be ignored. Normative constraints do not compute in the business lexicon of greed. I find that people outside of business tend to erroneously project moral principles onto the restricted technical domain of cost/benefit analysis in business. Hence moral claims are made and perceived to be ignored, and a business climate can become toxic. Hence, legislation is typically sought by the general public, even though that route cannot mandate treating others as ends in themselves. We settle, in other words, for temporary dams tantamount to an ethical injunction. In the end, for being moral beings, we humans are remarkably immune to our own nature in the pursuit of what we perceive as our own interests.  In terms of privacy and online data on users, interests particular to a given firm do not recognize "personal boundaries" even as the latter have become salient in modern society. In other words, besides business ethics, business and society comes into play, and of course business and government tends to be the domain in which force or power swoops in to mop up the mess, albeit with thumbs and externally only.


Source: Scott Thurm, "Online Trackers Rake in Funding," The Wall Street Journal, February 25, 2011, pp. B1-2.

See my related essay on the regulation of cookies in the EU: http://thewordenreport.blogspot.com/2011/02/business-and-european-integration-case.html

Thursday, February 3, 2011

In 2010, the EU Parliament passed a law to protect consumers in using the internet from “cookies,” which track computer usage and can thus compromise privacy. The EU’s 27 states had to codify the new law, but it was feared at the time that each state “might interpret the law differently, creating a nightmare of conflicting standards.” According to John Vassallo, Microsoft’s legal counsel in Brussels, “In the end, what matters is harmonized rules across Europe.” Ironically, it was the lobbying by Europe’s Internet-advertising industry group that led to the wiggle-room in the EU law that could spawn different state interpretations and implementations at the expense of European integration. Britain, for example, was expected to go along with the industry’s interpretation in which a browser’s settings that allow cookies would count as consent by the user. The French state Assembly, however, was leaning toward requiring that a browser ask the user upfront whether to accept future cookies. In this difference—in which the internet advertising industry preferred Britain’s approach—the “strong state / weak state” distinction can be seen. That is, the French legislature was more resistant to the influence of the industry that had a vested interest in the law.  As an aside, it can be noted that for that industry to lobby constituted a conflict of interest.

In terms of European federalism, the interest of big business in political consolidation at the EU level can be seen. At the same time, the influence of business in pulling some state governments away from a strict interpretation of an EU law not friendly to business can also be seen. Overall, the impact of big business is probably toward more governmental sovereignty being transferred to the EU (at some point being at the expense of the innate diversity within the EU).

In terms of the “cookie” law in particular, EU’s federalism seems well-suited, given the uncertainty involved in how to protect consumers on the internet. In general terms, a general law allowing a certain extent of diversity in application may be preferable to a US-style “one-size-fits-all.”  This is especially so in an empire-scale federal system such as the EU or US wherein diversity is inherent.

Source: “EU Chews on Web Cookies,” Wall Street Journal, November 22, 2010, pp. B1-2.

See my related essay on the regulation of cookies in the US and application of ethical theory to the topic:
http://thewordenreport.blogspot.com/2011/02/online-privacy-and-advertising.html

 

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